• 

  42%

  +0.1%

  Colom Narrowly Wins

  Mike Espy-backed Democrat Scott Colom holds his narrow lead through canvassing and a likely recount, giving Democrats a rare Mississippi Senate pickup. The DSCC legal team focuses on protecting absentee and provisional ballots in Democratic-leaning counties while Hyde-Smith’s challenges fall short.

  Healthcare +0.2% · Energy −0.2% · Finance −0.1%

• 

  31%

  0.0%

  Hyde-Smith Overtakes

  Cindy Hyde-Smith reverses Colom’s 65-vote lead during the canvass or recount, most likely through rejected provisional ballots, cured absentee ballots, or corrected county tabulations. The GOP frames the result as a hold in a surprisingly competitive race, while Democrats face pressure to decide whether to litigate.

  Energy +0.2% · Finance +0.1%

• 

  20%

  −0.1%

  Prolonged Legal Fight

  Neither campaign can quickly establish a decisive margin, and the contest moves into a multi-county legal battle over absentee, provisional, and affidavit ballots. The result remains uncertain long enough to affect Senate organizing assumptions but not enough to create a broad market event.

• 

  7%

  −0.2%

  Extraordinary Election Dispute

  A rare escalation occurs if certification is blocked, a county’s results are questioned, or courts disagree over ballot standards. This remains unlikely, but the 65-vote margin makes an unusually contentious post-election process possible.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.