Possible scenario
Prolonged Legal Fight
−0.1%
Neither campaign can quickly establish a decisive margin, and the contest moves into a multi-county legal battle over absentee, provisional, and affidavit ballots. The result remains uncertain long enough to affect Senate organizing assumptions but not enough to create a broad market event.
What it moves
- Market volatility
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.