• 

  45%0.0%

  El-Sayed Consolidates Democrats

  Abdul El-Sayed converts the backlash against Haley Stevens into a broader organizing and fundraising surge. Progressive validators, local Democratic officials, and former Stevens aides frame Mike Rogers as unacceptable, making El-Sayed the main Democratic vehicle for anti-Rogers voters.

• 

  25%0.0%

  Stevens Faces Isolation

  Haley Stevens’ endorsement of Mike Rogers triggers continued defections from former staffers, donors, and Democratic allies. Her political brand suffers as the episode is cast as a break with party voters rather than a tactical bipartisan move.

• 

  20%0.0%

  Rogers Gains Advantage

  Mike Rogers capitalizes on the Democratic split by presenting himself as a bipartisan option. The Stevens endorsement becomes a proof point in Republican messaging to suburban independents and anti-progressive Democrats.

• 

  10%0.0%

  Party Brokers Reset

  State and national Democrats intervene to contain the damage from Stevens’ endorsement. The goal is to prevent the dispute from becoming a durable general-election liability and to refocus attacks on Rogers.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.