In the Dallas Fort Worth suburbs, Theo Elections reported that first day early voters in Collin and Denton counties swung 19.2 percentage points toward Democrats based on their prior primary voting histories, shifting Collin from a 20 point Republican advantage to a tie and Denton from a 23 point Republican edge to 3 points. In Hays County, first day turnout showed a 26.9 point swing toward Democrats by the same measure.
Texas enters the Nov. 3 midterm elections with 19 million registered voters and more than $500 million in campaign ad spending and reservations. The ballot features the US Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico, whom Polymarket gives a 61% chance of ending a 38 year Democratic losing streak in Texas Senate contests. In person early voting runs through Oct. 30.