Possible scenario
High-Turnout Split
20% Chance
The central story becomes turnout intensity rather than a clean partisan wave. Dallas and Webb remain unusually active, but the pattern produces mixed outcomes across statewide, congressional and county-level contests.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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