Possible scenario
Democratic Surge Extends
36% Chance
The Day 1 surge in Dallas and Webb Counties proves to be an early indicator rather than a one-day anomaly. Democratic organizers convert high-propensity urban voters and newly reactivated Latino voters into a durable early-vote advantage across Dallas, Harris, Bexar, El Paso and parts of South Texas.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.4%
- Finance -0.2%
- Utilities +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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