Possible scenario
Republicans Catch Up
30% Chance
The opening-day Democratic advantage fades as Republican counties and exurban voters increase participation later in the early-vote window. The Republican Party of Texas, county chairs and conservative groups use the Dallas-Webb headlines to mobilize voters who had planned to wait until Election Day.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Finance +0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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