President Donald Trump confirmed further US military strikes on Iran amid political fallout from the Republican defeat in the midterm elections, the South China Morning Post reported. Two senior White House sources separately told Reuters that Trump held off on attacking until after the vote at their request and is now inclined to order major combat operations because he “has nothing to lose politically now that the midterms are over.”
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The confirmation follows days of White House deliberations in which Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and US Central Command chief Adm. Brad Cooper urged renewed strikes against Iranian nuclear sites, including the underground Pickaxe Mountain facility, and energy infrastructure before a Democratic-led Congress takes office on Jan 3. Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff and Gulf allies had pushed for a diplomatic end to the $47 billion war, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent favored maintaining the naval blockade and tightening sanctions, the Wall Street Journal and NBC News reported.
Before the report, Trump told reporters he would soon decide whether to “go further and certify it,” adding that “I would rather not destroy the rest of the country if possible, but maybe I’ll have to” and estimating Iran would need 25 years to rebuild. Democratic Representative Yassamin Ansari condemned the threat against a nation of 90 million people and called on Democrats to end the conflict once they assume control of the House and Senate.
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Restricted Hormuz throughput creates a stagflation shock: the broad equity market falls 7%, erasing $6.72T over 20 days as energy, freight and financing costs rise while growth weakens. Energy gains 3.7%, but Consumer Cyclicals lose 9.5% and Technology loses 8.8%, because producers benefit from scarcity while energy users and growth-sensitive assets absorb higher costs and lower valuations.
A near-total halt in Strait of Hormuz energy traffic produces a stagflationary shock: the broad equity market falls 12%, erasing $11.5 trillion over 20 days. Expensive energy, freight and financing punish technology and consumer-sensitive businesses, while energy gains 5.3% as higher oil and LNG realizations outweigh the wider selloff.
Sustained Hormuz transit normalization lifts the broad equity market 4%, adding $3.84T as cheaper energy, shipping and credit support risk appetite. Energy loses pricing support, while technology and fuel-importing utilities benefit from lower costs and easier financial conditions.
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Prediction markets
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal
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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal, by
3%
10%
