• 

  38%

  0.0%

  Jordan Wins Conference

  Jim Jordan leverages conservative credibility, Freedom Caucus ties, and support from members who want a more combative posture against the new Democratic House majority. Greg Steube’s entry initially fragments the right flank, but most hard-line members consolidate behind Jordan before the final ballot.

• 

  30%

  0.0%

  Scalise Prevails

  Steve Scalise’s existing leadership network, fundraising ties, and relationships with appropriators and swing-district Republicans give him a path to victory. Members who want a more disciplined recovery after losing the House majority coalesce around him.

• 

  17%

  0.0%

  Steube Becomes Kingmaker

  Steube does not win, but his candidacy attracts enough conservative votes to shape the final outcome. He uses that leverage to extract commitments on conference rules, media strategy, and conservative representation in the minority leadership team.

• 

  10%

  −0.1%

  Leadership Race Deadlocks

  Jordan, Scalise, and Steube each retain enough support to prevent a quick majority inside the GOP conference. The party postpones or extends voting while members search for a compromise or pressure one candidate to withdraw.

• 

  5%

  −0.2%

  Steube Upset Win

  Steube pulls off a low-probability upset if Jordan and Scalise fatally split their coalitions and members decide to elevate a younger, more insurgent conservative. This would mark a sharp symbolic break from the pre-election leadership structure, though Republicans’ minority status limits near-term policy implications.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.