• 

  58%

  0.0%

  Womack Wins NC14

  Lakesha Womack’s reported lead holds as remaining absentee, provisional, and late precinct results are added. Democratic early-vote strength in North Carolina and strong fundraising conditions make a narrow Democratic flip the most likely outcome.

• 

  29%

  0.0%

  Moore Overtakes Womack

  Late-counted Election Day ballots, rural precinct updates, or provisional-ballot validation move Tim Moore ahead despite Womack’s initial lead. This remains plausible because Republican candidates often improve as same-day and smaller-county vote is fully reported.

  Finance +0.1% · Energy +0.1%

• 

  13%

  −0.1%

  Recount Or Litigation

  The margin falls inside recount territory or both campaigns challenge batches of absentee and provisional ballots. This scenario is less likely than a normal certification but credible given the high stakes of a former state House speaker losing a competitive congressional race.

  Technology −0.1% · Finance −0.1%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.