• 

  40%

  0.0%

  Democratic House Constraint

  The most likely path is that Democrats convert the scale of the midterm defeat into a narrow but functional House majority. Markets treat this as a constraint on Trump’s second-term agenda, especially tariffs, spending fights, and deregulation, rather than a standalone regime change.

  Healthcare +0.4% · Finance −0.4% · Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%

• 

  25%

  +0.2%

  GOP Rebuilds Coalition

  Republicans respond to the Cook review by treating the 2026 midterm as a warning rather than a collapse. The party begins a messaging and candidate-quality reset, but the path depends on whether Trump remains the unquestioned center of gravity.

  Energy +0.5% · Finance +0.5% · Industrials +0.3%

• 

  20%

  −0.5%

  Trump Escalates Conflict

  Trump treats the post-election analysis as a hostile narrative and doubles down on confrontation with Democrats and dissenting Republicans. This scenario has the largest near-term risk-off potential because it raises odds of shutdown threats, tariff announcements, or chaotic governing tactics.

  Industrials −0.4% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.3% · Business Services −0.3%

• 

  15%

  +0.2%

  Bipartisan Inflation Pivot

  Both parties interpret the midterm result as an inflation referendum and pursue limited cost-of-living deals. This is less likely than gridlock, but it would produce a modestly positive market reaction if investors see lower tariff, deficit, or supply-chain risk.

  Industrials +0.3% · Consumer Cyclicals +0.3% · Utilities +0.2%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.