Possible scenario
Recount Or Litigation
−0.1%
The margin falls inside recount territory or both campaigns challenge batches of absentee and provisional ballots. This scenario is less likely than a normal certification but credible given the high stakes of a former state House speaker losing a competitive congressional race.
What it moves
- Technology−0.1%
- Finance−0.1%
- Market volatility
- 10-year Treasury yield
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.