• 

  42%+0.4%

  Democrats Translate Surge

  The 30-point Latino advantage proves directionally accurate and helps Democrats win enough suburban, Sun Belt, and heavily Hispanic districts to take the House. The Senate remains harder for Democrats, so the practical near-term outcome is divided government, oversight of immigration raids, and a check on Trump’s domestic agenda rather than a full policy reversal.

  Consumer Services +0.7% · Consumer Cyclicals +0.5% · Finance +0.2%

• 

  28%−0.1%

  Split Electoral Verdict

  The Latino shift is real but interacts with uneven turnout and district boundaries, producing mixed control outcomes. Democrats gain leverage and a stronger demographic narrative, but Republicans preserve enough institutional power to keep Trump’s immigration policy broadly intact.

  Consumer Non-Cyclicals −0.2% · Consumer Services −0.1% · Technology −0.1%

• 

  18%−0.2%

  Poll Overstates Shift

  The poll captures dissatisfaction with Trump’s raids but overstates how much that sentiment converts into Democratic votes across competitive districts. Republicans still lose ground with Latinos compared with 2024, but turnout composition and local candidate effects keep the midterm map from becoming a Democratic wave.

  Consumer Services −0.6% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.4% · Industrials −0.2%

• 

  12%0.0%

  Policy Recalibration Follows

  Both parties treat the Latino poll and election results as evidence that immigration tactics now carry measurable electoral costs. The key uncertainty is whether the Trump administration moderates high-visibility raids, doubles down, or allows Congress to explore a narrower labor and border compromise.

  Consumer Services +0.4% · Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.2% · Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.