Poll Overstates Shift

18%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The poll captures dissatisfaction with Trump’s raids but overstates how much that sentiment converts into Democratic votes across competitive districts. Republicans still lose ground with Latinos compared with 2024, but turnout composition and local candidate effects keep the midterm map from becoming a Democratic wave.

What it moves

Consumer Services−0.6%
Consumer Cyclicals−0.4%
Industrials−0.2%
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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