Possible scenario
Split Electoral Verdict
28%
−0.1%
The Latino shift is real but interacts with uneven turnout and district boundaries, producing mixed control outcomes. Democrats gain leverage and a stronger demographic narrative, but Republicans preserve enough institutional power to keep Trump’s immigration policy broadly intact.
What it moves
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals−0.2%
- Consumer Services−0.1%
- Market volatility
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
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