• 

  50%0.0%

  Certification Proceeds Smoothly

  County canvasses and late ballot reconciliation confirm Sean McCann’s narrow defeat of Bill Huizenga. Huizenga’s loss removes a senior Republican voice from the House Financial Services Committee, but the market impact remains very limited because this is a single House seat.

  Finance −0.1%

• 

  25%−0.1%

  Recount Confirms McCann

  Huizenga seeks a recount because the reported margin is extremely narrow and earlier projections favored him. The recount creates temporary political uncertainty but is unlikely to materially alter national financial conditions unless House control depends on the seat.

  Finance −0.1%

• 

  15%0.0%

  Result Flips Back

  A canvass correction, recount adjustment, or ballot ruling reverses the reported McCann win and restores Huizenga’s lead. This would preserve a senior Republican Financial Services member, producing a small positive read-through for finance and crypto-policy expectations.

  Finance +0.1%

• 

  10%−0.2%

  Contested Seat Lingers

  The race remains unresolved into the House organizational period, either because of continuing litigation or a certification dispute. This scenario matters most if the national House majority depends on one or two seats, making the Michigan contest a symbol of broader control uncertainty.

  Finance −0.3%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.