• 

  47%0.0%

  Salazar Win Certified

  Maria Elvira Salazar’s recovered lead survives the remaining Miami-Dade count, keeping Florida’s 27th District in Republican hands. The outcome fits the district’s recent rightward Latino shift, even with immigration enforcement tensions cutting into the GOP’s early-vote advantage.

• 

  32%−0.1%

  Democrat Overtakes

  Late-counted mail ballots, provisional ballots, or cured ballots erase Salazar’s narrow lead and flip the district to the Democratic challenger. This would signal that the GOP’s Miami-Dade gains were real but not enough to withstand backlash over deportations and local affordability concerns.

  Energy −0.1% · Finance −0.1% · Healthcare +0.1%

• 

  15%−0.2%

  Prolonged Recount Fight

  The race remains within recount territory after the first canvass, forcing additional review under Florida law. The dispute keeps the district unsettled for days or weeks and becomes a national proxy fight over mail ballots, deportation politics, and Miami-Dade election administration.

  Finance −0.2% · Technology −0.1% · Industrials −0.1%

• 

  6%−0.2%

  Counting Dispute Escalates

  A low-probability administrative dispute over ballot curing, voter eligibility, or precinct reporting pushes the contest beyond a normal recount. The issue would be politically explosive in Miami because the campaign already intersects with immigration enforcement, Venezuelan deportations, and Latino voter realignment.

  Finance −0.3% · Technology −0.2% · Industrials −0.1%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.