Democrat Overtakes

32%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Late-counted mail ballots, provisional ballots, or cured ballots erase Salazar’s narrow lead and flip the district to the Democratic challenger. This would signal that the GOP’s Miami-Dade gains were real but not enough to withstand backlash over deportations and local affordability concerns.

What it moves

Energy−0.1%
Finance−0.1%
Market volatility▲ up
10-year Treasury yield▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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