• 

  36%

  −0.1%

  UTJ Stays With Netanyahu

  Netanyahu persuades United Torah Judaism to delay or abandon its defection by promising a softer conscription framework, continued yeshiva funding, and coalition protections. This is plausible because UTJ can extract concessions from both camps while avoiding immediate blame for toppling the government.

• 

  29%

  +0.1%

  UTJ Joins Eisenkot

  UTJ decides Netanyahu can no longer secure its core interests and moves toward an Eisenkot-led government after receiving a more acceptable conscription compromise. Opposition parties accept enough exemptions or phased service targets to make a replacement coalition viable.

• 

  25%

  −0.2%

  Coalition Talks Stall

  Neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot can lock down UTJ because the conscription dispute remains too politically costly. The result is a frozen Knesset arithmetic in which Netanyahu stays in office but lacks a durable solution to the High Court’s conscription ruling.

• 

  10%

  −0.1%

  Early Election Triggered

  The bargaining collapses so badly that neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot can assemble a stable majority, pushing parties toward an early election. This is less likely in the immediate term because most factions still prefer leverage over a risky campaign.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.