• 

  42%+0.9%

  Relief Rally Extends

  The most likely path is a short-term continuation of Tuesday’s rebound as investors treat the chip-led correction as overdone. Bargain-hunting in AI hardware and megacap software helps stabilize the Nasdaq Composite, though gains remain sensitive to yields and capex commentary.

  Technology +1.5% · Business Services +0.4% · Finance +0.2%

• 

  30%−0.1%

  Choppy Stabilization

  A second plausible outcome is that the Nasdaq stabilizes without a decisive breakout. Investors reassess AI capex assumptions after Microsoft’s capex trim and Intel’s earnings shock, keeping trading volatile but contained.

  Technology −0.1%

• 

  20%−1.4%

  Chip Weakness Returns

  The selloff could resume if investors conclude that Tuesday’s bounce was technical rather than fundamental. In this scenario, concerns about semiconductor earnings, AI spending discipline and stretched valuations pull the Nasdaq back toward correction lows.

  Technology −2.2% · Industrials −0.3% · Business Services −0.2%

• 

  8%−0.2%

  Macro Data Dominates

  A lower-probability path is that the next move is driven less by chip earnings and more by rates after the recent inflation shock. Even modest Treasury yield moves could affect high-duration technology shares because valuations remain sensitive after the correction.

  Consumer Cyclicals −0.4% · Technology −0.3% · Finance +0.2%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.