Macro Data Dominates

8%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

A lower-probability path is that the next move is driven less by chip earnings and more by rates after the recent inflation shock. Even modest Treasury yield moves could affect high-duration technology shares because valuations remain sensitive after the correction.

What it moves

Consumer Cyclicals−0.4%
Technology−0.3%
10-year Treasury yield▲ up
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

Keeping an eye on this scenario?