Choppy Stabilization

30%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

A second plausible outcome is that the Nasdaq stabilizes without a decisive breakout. Investors reassess AI capex assumptions after Microsoft’s capex trim and Intel’s earnings shock, keeping trading volatile but contained.

What it moves

Technology−0.1%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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