International investors withdrew the largest amount of capital from the island’s equity market in a single month during October. This exodus of funds comes as a worldwide retreat from artificial intelligence shares pushes Taiwan’s primary stock benchmark toward a technical correction.
The decline drove the Taiex index 3.5% lower to close at 44,726.26 on Oct 30. That figure marks the lowest point for the stock benchmark since Aug 25.
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If this story plays out
Scenarios
Portfolio
If this story plays out
−0.5%
Scenarios
Portfolio
−1.8%
Oct 30 close
Story, if it plays out
40%+0.4%
Foreign selling slows as valuations in Taiwan semiconductors and electronics exporters become more attractive after October’s record withdrawals. Local institutions, pension funds, and bargain hunters absorb part of the pressure while investors wait for clearer Fed guidance and November export data.
35%−1.3%
The record October outflow continues into November as a strong dollar, high U.S. yields, and AI valuation concerns keep global investors underweight Taiwan. The pressure remains financial rather than systemic, but semiconductor-heavy benchmarks lag other Asian markets.
15%−1.8%
Investors interpret October’s record outflows as partly linked to renewed cross-strait risk after Taiwan’s AI chip export restrictions on China and earlier Chinese military drills. The scenario is less likely than a financial-flow explanation, but it carries larger short-term risk premia for Taiwan assets.
10%+1.0%
Taiwanese authorities respond to the record outflow with communication aimed at stabilizing confidence, potentially including public comments from the Financial Supervisory Commission or readiness from state-linked funds. Policy support limits downside but does not fully reverse foreign caution while U.S. rates remain high.
Portfolio
Portfolio
−1.8%
Oct 30 close
This story on the S&P 500