Geopolitical Risk Rises

15%its chance, of the story’s futures

−1.8%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Investors interpret October’s record outflows as partly linked to renewed cross-strait risk after Taiwan’s AI chip export restrictions on China and earlier Chinese military drills. The scenario is less likely than a financial-flow explanation, but it carries larger short-term risk premia for Taiwan assets.

What it moves

Technology−2.9%
Industrials−1.4%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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