Russian Campaign Expands

its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.4%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Moscow exploits Ukraine’s air-defense shortage by extending missile and drone attacks from the grid to aid hubs, rail junctions and repair crews. The civilian toll raises Western pressure but does not immediately restore Ukrainian interceptor stocks.

What it moves

Industrials+1.2%
Consumer Cyclicals−0.6%
Market volatility▲ up
10-year Treasury yield▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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