Possible scenario
NATO Border Incident
−0.5%
A Russian missile or drone attack near western Ukraine creates a cross-border incident involving Poland or Romania. This is less likely than continued strikes inside Ukraine, but it would have the clearest near-term escalation impact on markets.
What it moves
- Industrials+1.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals−0.8%
- Market volatility
- 10-year Treasury yield
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