• 

  40%+0.4%

  Democrats Overperform House

  The NBC exit poll proves directionally accurate, with Jewish voters returning strongly to Democrats after Donald Trump’s repeated antisemitic slur and broader suburban discomfort with GOP messaging. Democrats use the shift in New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Florida, and Arizona districts to win or expand a House majority.

  Technology +0.4% · Finance +0.3%

• 

  25%+0.1%

  Exit Poll Moderates

  The NBC exit poll captures a real Democratic advantage among Jewish voters, but final precinct-level and survey adjustments reduce the margin from the initial 67%-32% figure. The political story remains damaging for Republicans, though not as dramatic as the first headline suggested.

  Consumer Services +0.1%

• 

  20%−0.2%

  Republicans Hold House

  The Jewish vote swing is real but geographically insufficient to decide enough districts, and Republicans retain control through stronger rural turnout, Latino gains, or favorable district maps. The result keeps Mike Johnson or another Republican in position to run the House and preserves more of Trump’s legislative agenda.

  Energy +0.3% · Finance +0.2% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.1%

• 

  15%0.0%

  Party Messaging Reset

  Regardless of final House control, both parties treat the exit poll as evidence that Jewish voters reacted sharply to the campaign’s rhetoric on antisemitism and Israel. The next phase centers on public positioning by the RNC, House Republicans, AIPAC, J Street, and Democratic leaders rather than immediate market-moving legislation.

  Industrials +0.1%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.