Democrats Overperform House

40%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.4%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The NBC exit poll proves directionally accurate, with Jewish voters returning strongly to Democrats after Donald Trump’s repeated antisemitic slur and broader suburban discomfort with GOP messaging. Democrats use the shift in New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Florida, and Arizona districts to win or expand a House majority.

What it moves

Technology+0.4%
Finance+0.3%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▼ down
Market volatility▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

Keeping an eye on this scenario?