Possible scenario
Republicans Hold House
20%
−0.2%
The Jewish vote swing is real but geographically insufficient to decide enough districts, and Republicans retain control through stronger rural turnout, Latino gains, or favorable district maps. The result keeps Mike Johnson or another Republican in position to run the House and preserves more of Trump’s legislative agenda.
What it moves
- Energy+0.3%
- Finance+0.2%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
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