VoteHub's current model projects Talarico to win by 2.4 percentage points, a narrower margin than his 3.2 point lead in the polls. Early voting begins in two weeks, and analysts forecast that 72% of Texas ballots will be cast before Election Day. While Talarico has led nearly every poll since August, the GOP recently increased outside spending on TV ads following a midterm convention in Dallas in an attempt to shift the race's fundamentals.
Tuesday, October 20, 2026
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VoteHub Upgrades Texas Senate to Lean D for James Talarico
US Politics11 days ago
The forecasting site VoteHub upgraded its rating for the Texas Senate race from 'Tilt D' to 'Lean D' on Oct 5, citing growing confidence in Democratic candidate James Talarico's lead. Talarico's win probability reached an all-time high of 68% on the Kalshi prediction market that same day, though his odds subsequently fell 6% in the three days ending Oct 9. Ken Paxton's chances of winning the seat hit an all-time low during this period, as analysts noted he is running out of time to make up ground.
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