Possible scenario
Talarico Decisive Win
12% Chance
The VoteHub upgrade understates the scale of GOP weakness, and Paxton's liabilities depress Republican turnout more than late polling captures. Talarico wins by a mid-single-digit margin, making Texas the defining Democratic Senate gain of 2026.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.6%
- Utilities +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
- Technology +0.1%
- Healthcare -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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