Possible scenario
Talarico Narrow Win
48% Chance
James Talarico holds the small polling advantage reflected in VoteHub's Lean D call and converts strong fundraising into turnout in Dallas, Austin, San Antonio, Houston suburbs, and college communities. Ken Paxton remains competitive because of Republican baseline strength in Texas, but establishment GOP discomfort and Democratic ad volume keep him just short.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
- Utilities +0.2%
- Technology +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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