Possible scenario
Regional Spillover Risk
−1.0%
A follow-on Russian salvo creates a higher-risk regional incident through missile debris, airspace alerts, or strikes close to NATO territory. This remains less likely than a contained campaign, but it would produce the largest immediate market reaction among plausible outcomes.
What it moves
- Industrials+1.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals−0.5%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
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