Contained Military Cycle

its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Russia conducts additional strikes but at a lower tempo, while Ukraine improves interception rates and prevents a nationwide power collapse. The war remains severe for Ukraine, but international markets largely treat the episode as contained within the existing conflict.

What it moves

Consumer Cyclicals+0.1%
Utilities+0.1%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▼ down
Market volatility▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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