Nasdaq Futures Rebound 1.3% as Nikkei Drops 5.3% After $2.5T AI Rout

Nasdaq futures climbed 1.3% overnight, reversing earlier losses of more than 1% as chipmakers rebounded in after hours trading. SanDisk rose 6%, Micron gained 5.5%, AMD added 5% and Nvidia advanced 2.4%, while Asian equities tumbled in the wake of Thursday’s US technology selloff, with Japan’s Nikkei dropping 5.3%.

President Donald Trump blamed Democrats and the midterm election results for Thursday’s plunge, calling it “one of the Worst Days in History” and noting that Americans’ 401(k) accounts had fallen, while adding that the country would soon be “BIGGER AND STRONGER THAN EVER BEFORE.”

How it could play out

−0.5%Impact on the S&P 500 across 4 scenarios (−2.8% to +1.1%)

Scenarios

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

How it could play out

Scenarios

Story, how it could play out

4 ways this could read

Possible futures, not reported news · chances and moves from Tilt’s model

+0.7%
Relief Rally Holds
The most likely path is a short-covering rebound in US AI-linked equities after the sharp $2.5 trillion drawdown. Investors treat the selloff as a valuation reset rather than a collapse in AI demand, while Asian weakness remains contained to the prior session.
Technology +1.2% · Finance +0.5% · Industrials −0.2%
−2.8%
Selloff Resumes
A renewed decline is plausible because the prior selloff was large, global, and concentrated in crowded AI winners. If US cash markets reject the futures rebound, systematic de-risking and margin pressure could extend the move across semiconductors and high-growth software.
Technology −4.2% · Industrials −1.4% · Finance −1.3%
−0.3%
Orderly Rotation
Investors may decide the AI trade is over-owned but not economically dangerous, rotating into cheaper sectors rather than exiting equities outright. This outcome would cap volatility while pressuring the highest-multiple semiconductor and cloud infrastructure names.
Technology −1.2% · Finance +0.9% · Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.8%
+1.1%
Policy Reassurance
A smaller but plausible outcome is verbal reassurance from central banks or finance ministries, especially if Asian markets remain disorderly. Such comments would not solve AI valuation concerns, but they could dampen volatility and support a short-term rebound.
Technology +1.5% · Finance +0.9% · Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.

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