• 

  38%

  +0.2%

  Clarified Permit Pause

  The most likely outcome is that incoming Governor Hinojosa narrows the pause to new permit applications while allowing approved data-center projects to continue. That would reduce the market’s fear that Texas is abruptly blocking the AI buildout, but it would not remove longer-term grid-cost questions.

  Utilities +0.4% · Technology +0.2% · Industrials +0.2%

• 

  27%

  −0.5%

  Capex Peak Confirmed

  Investors increasingly accept the argument that AI-infrastructure spending is near a cyclical peak after several quarters of extraordinary hyperscaler capex. The Texas permitting pause becomes a catalyst for repricing AI suppliers rather than the sole driver of the move.

  Utilities −1.0% · Technology −0.9% · Industrials −0.8%

• 

  20%

  −0.5%

  Texas Tightens Access

  Texas regulators use the Abbott-ordered ERCOT audit and Hinojosa transition period to impose tougher standards on large-load interconnections. This would not end AI construction, but it would raise costs and shift bargaining power toward generators and grid operators.

  Technology −1.0% · Energy +0.3% · Industrials −0.1%

• 

  15%

  +0.2%

  Power Compromise Advances

  Texas officials and large technology buyers reach a pragmatic deal that permits new AI campuses if developers bring power resources or pay for grid upgrades. This outcome would turn the pause into a structured growth framework for power and equipment suppliers.

  Utilities +1.1% · Industrials +0.9% · Energy +0.6%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.