• 

  42%0.0%

  Colom Win Certified

  Scott Colom’s lead survives the remaining county returns and absentee ballot count, producing a Democratic Senate pickup in Mississippi. The outcome is plausible because the race had already moved to toss-up and the headline indicates Colom has overtaken Hyde-Smith as more vote-rich areas report.

  Healthcare −0.2% · Finance −0.2% · Energy −0.2%

• 

  28%+0.2%

  Hyde-Smith Comeback

  Hyde-Smith benefits from late-reporting Republican counties and Election Day ballots, reversing Colom’s temporary lead. This remains realistic because only a partial count was available earlier and Mississippi’s rural Republican vote can report later than urban Democratic precincts.

  Energy +0.5% · Finance +0.4% · Healthcare +0.3%

• 

  22%−0.3%

  Recount Legal Fight

  The race remains too close to call after all major ballot batches are reported, leading to recount demands and potential court filings. This is plausible given the rapid lead changes and the national significance of a possible Mississippi upset.

  Finance −0.3% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.3% · Technology −0.1%

• 

  8%0.0%

  Tabulation Narrative Shifts

  A county reporting update or correction changes how the race is interpreted without immediately producing a final winner. This is a lower-probability but realistic election-night outcome because partial-count headlines can shift quickly as county feeds are reconciled.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.