• 

  42%

  0.0%

  Investigation Stays Contained

  Shin Bet and police continue arrests and interrogations around alleged foreign-linked election funding, but the case remains focused on activists, intermediaries, and local committees. Balad, Hadash-Ta’al, and Ra’am remain on the ballot under Supreme Court protection, while prosecutors try to separate criminal exposure from party eligibility.

• 

  25%

  −0.1%

  Ballot Fight Returns

  The arrest of a Balad activist becomes the basis for renewed legal pressure against Arab parties, especially Balad. The Supreme Court again becomes the decisive venue, balancing election integrity claims against minority representation and due process.

  Finance +0.1%

• 

  20%

  −0.3%

  Foreign Links Confirmed

  Investigators produce more concrete evidence that foreign-linked channels were used to move money or coordinate online influence operations. The result is less a party-ban case than a diplomatic and counterintelligence case involving Qatar, Iran, and possibly Pakistan-based intermediaries.

  Industrials +0.2%

• 

  13%

  −0.2%

  Election Crisis Deepens

  The investigation becomes large enough to challenge confidence in the election process itself. A delay or emergency legal intervention remains less likely, but the warning that thousands could be involved creates a path toward a broader institutional confrontation.

  Industrials +0.3% · Technology +0.1%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.