The new forecast expands on a September 25 update that gave Democrats a 72% chance of flipping the House alone, while maintaining the same projected 232 House seats. That earlier analysis identified probable seat gains across the country, specifically including three seats in Pennsylvania and two in Iowa.
Tuesday, October 20, 2026
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Democrats Now First Favorites to Flip Congress in DDHQ Forecast
US Politics22 days ago
A 51% probability of winning both the House and Senate is the latest projection for the Democratic Party from Decision Desk HQ. The September 28 data update forecasts that Democrats will secure 232 seats in the House and 51 in the Senate, making them the favorites to seize control of the U.S. Congress for the first time during this election cycle.
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