Possible scenario
Delayed Control Fight
14% Chance
Close races in California, New York, Arizona, Nevada, Maine, and North Carolina prevent a quick call on congressional control. This scenario is less about final partisan balance and more about recounts, lawsuits, certification deadlines, and elevated uncertainty immediately after the vote.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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