• 

  45%−0.1%

  Quiet Miami Exile

  The most likely path is a contained diplomatic standoff: Flávio Bolsonaro remains in the United States while the Trump administration avoids a public meeting that would further inflame Brasília. Brazil protests the asylum-style protection but stops short of major retaliation because trade, security, and financial channels remain valuable.

• 

  25%−0.2%

  Extradition Fight Opens

  Brazilian prosecutors and the Supreme Court are likely to explore legal routes to force Flávio’s return or restrict his political activity abroad. The U.S. response would probably be slow and legalistic, creating a prolonged dispute rather than an immediate rupture.

  Finance −0.1%

• 

  20%−0.6%

  Sanctions And Tariffs

  A less likely but realistic escalation is that Trump uses the Bolsonaro case to punish Brazilian institutions, especially the Supreme Court and Lula’s government. Brazil could retaliate diplomatically or commercially, creating a more visible risk premium for Brazilian assets and exposed trade names.

  Non-Energy Materials −0.2% · Industrials −0.2% · Finance −0.1%

• 

  10%+0.3%

  Managed De-escalation

  A lower-probability outcome is that both governments decide the issue is too costly to let dominate relations. Trump’s refusal to meet Flávio gives diplomats a possible off-ramp: the U.S. can protect him quietly while Brazil preserves its legal position.

  Finance +0.2% · Non-Energy Materials +0.1%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.