Possible scenario

Sanctions And Tariffs

20%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.6%on the S&P 500, if it happens

A less likely but realistic escalation is that Trump uses the Bolsonaro case to punish Brazilian institutions, especially the Supreme Court and Lula’s government. Brazil could retaliate diplomatically or commercially, creating a more visible risk premium for Brazilian assets and exposed trade names.

What it moves

Non-Energy Materials−0.2%
Industrials−0.2%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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