Possible scenario

Extradition Fight Opens

25%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Brazilian prosecutors and the Supreme Court are likely to explore legal routes to force Flávio’s return or restrict his political activity abroad. The U.S. response would probably be slow and legalistic, creating a prolonged dispute rather than an immediate rupture.

What it moves

Finance−0.1%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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