Possible scenario

Quiet Miami Exile

45%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The most likely path is a contained diplomatic standoff: Flávio Bolsonaro remains in the United States while the Trump administration avoids a public meeting that would further inflame Brasília. Brazil protests the asylum-style protection but stops short of major retaliation because trade, security, and financial channels remain valuable.

What it moves

Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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