Kalshi markets reversed to favor Bolsonaro finishing first in the opening round, assigning him a 68% chance against Lula’s 32%. Before polls closed, Lula had a 71% chance of finishing first. A separate market for the overall election gave Bolsonaro a 72% chance of winning as early results arrived.
Overseas voting showed a different picture. ElectoMaps’ parallel count of results from Europe, Asia, Africa and Oceania put Lula at 52.8% and Bolsonaro at 37.6%. Lula’s 15.2 percentage point lead in those locations was smaller than his 17.2 point advantage in 2022.