Possible scenario
Early Lead Reverses
48% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the 6% count is geographically skewed toward Bolsonaro-friendly areas and reverses as larger urban centers and the Northeast report. Lula finishes first in the opening round, but not necessarily with enough votes to avoid a runoff.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
- Energy -0.3%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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