Possible scenario
Bolsonaro Leads Runoff
27% Chance
Bolsonaro’s early advantage proves more durable than expected, but he falls short of the 50% threshold required for a first-round win. The result creates a high-stakes runoff and revives uncertainty over how courts handle his prior electoral ban and coup-attempt conviction.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.3%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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