The runoff occurs on October 25 after Bolsonaro topped Lula in the first round with approximately 47% of valid votes to Lula's 45.2%. Bolsonaro has proposed amnesty for his father, Jair, who is serving a 27 year prison sentence for plotting to overturn the 2022 election. President Lula is attempting to counter the right-wing momentum by mobilizing 30 million citizens who abstained from the first round of voting.
Tuesday, October 20, 2026
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Flávio Bolsonaro Leads Most Brazil Polls Ahead of October 25 Runoff
World6 days ago
Prediction markets now price right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro with an 88% probability of victory in Brazil's next presidential election. A recent Gerp survey places him at 55% of valid votes against 45% for President Lula, and a poll by Atlas Intel shows a lead of 53% to 47%. However, a Reuters-sourced Quaest poll describes the race as a technical tie, with Bolsonaro holding 46% and Lula 44% within a 2 point margin of error.
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