Possible scenario
Flávio Wins Runoff
44% Chance
Flávio Bolsonaro converts his first-round momentum and polling lead into a runoff victory over Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Markets treat the result as broadly pro-business, but the reaction is moderated by institutional friction around Jair Bolsonaro's conviction and the risk of governing confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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