Possible scenario
Lula Comeback Victory
31% Chance
Lula recovers enough support from poorer voters, moderates, and anti-Bolsonaro conservatives to overtake Flávio in the runoff. The result reduces fears of Bolsonaro-family restoration but raises investor concerns about fiscal expansion and state-company intervention.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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